Electric energy consumption is essential for promoting economic development and raising the standard of living. In contrast to other energy sources, electric energy cannot be stored for large-scale consumption. From an economic viewpoint, the supply and demand of electric energy must be balanced at any given time. Therefore, a precise forecasting of electric energy consumption is very important for the economic operation of an electric power grid.
The ability to create a forecasting model for an individual consumer can help determine the overall load on the grid for a given time.
For this post, we will classify this as a time series prediction problem and only use one variance. Check back for a post where introduce mutli variance.
The Dataset :
I used Smart Meters Texas or SMT portal to access my home electricity usage. SMTstores daily, monthly and even 15-minute intervals of energy data. Energy data is recorded by digital electric meters (commonly known as smart meters), and provides secure access to the data for customers and authorized market participants
In addition to acting as an interface for access to smart meter data, SMT enables secure communications with the customers in-home devices and provides a convenient and easy-to-use process where customers can voluntarily authorize market participants, other than the customer’s retail electric provider or third parties, access to their energy information and in-home devices.
Keras: Keras is an open source neural network library written in Python. It is capable of running on top of TensorFlow, Microsoft Cognitive Toolkit, Theano, or PlaidML. Designed to enable fast experimentation with deep neural networks, it focuses on being user-friendly, modular, and extensible
TensorFlow : TensorFlow is an open-source software library for dataflow programming across a range of tasks. It is a symbolic math library and is also used for machine learning applications such as neural networks
The Algorithm: LSTM
In our case, we will be using a variant of Recurrent Neural Network ( RNN ) called Long Short Term Memory ( LSTM), why? time series problems are a difficult type of prediction modeling, LSTMs are good at extracting input features patterns when it’s over a long period of time, LSTM have the capability of retaining it in memory, and use it to predict next sequences, this what my 3 months usage (in KWH) look like ( by 15 min interval ) :
for this example, I will only use a subset of the overall dataset, 3 days of electricity usage:
DATE,USAGE_KWH 11/01/18 00:15,0.005 11/01/18 00:30,0.005 11/01/18 00:45,0.013 11/01/18 01:00,0.029 11/01/18 01:15,0.025 11/01/18 01:30,0.004 11/01/18 01:45,0.005 11/01/18 02:00,0.004 11/01/18 02:15,0.024
loading the dataset:
# load the dataset dataframe = read_csv('AMS.csv', usecols=, engine='python') dataset = dataframe.values dataset = dataset.astype('float32')
Training Set and Test Set :
train_size = int(len(dataset) * 0.67) test_size = len(dataset) - train_size train, test = dataset[0:train_size,:], dataset[train_size:len(dataset),:]
model = Sequential()</pre> </div> model.add(LSTM(4, input_shape=(1, look_back))) model.add(Dense(1)) model.add(Activation('tanh')) model.compile(loss='mean_squared_error', optimizer='adam') model.fit(trainX, trainY, epochs=50, batch_size=1)
trainPredict = model.predict(trainX)</pre> </div> testPredict = model.predict(testX)
for plotting we shift the training and test sets :
# shift train predictions for plotting trainPredictPlot = numpy.empty_like(dataset) trainPredictPlot[:, :] = numpy.nan trainPredictPlot[look_back:len(trainPredict)+look_back, :] = trainPredict # shift test predictions for plotting testPredictPlot = numpy.empty_like(dataset) testPredictPlot[:, :] = numpy.nan testPredictPlot[len(trainPredict)+(look_back*2)+1:len(dataset)-1, :] = testPredict
if results were plotted, it would look something like the picture below:
Blue: actual usage
Orange: Test Set
if we zoom on the prediction part :
this is good forecasting, with a 0.19 RMSE
With the electricity market undergoing a revolution, load forecasts have gained much more significance spreading across other business departments like energy trading and financial planning. Accurate load forecasts are the basis for most reliability organizations operations, like Electricity Reliability Consul Of Texas more commonly known as ERCOT. Accurate load forecasting will become even more important with Smart Grids. Smart Grids create the opportunity to proactively take action at the consumer level, storage level, and generation side, to avoid a situation of energy scarcity and/ or price surge.
ERCOT is an acronym for Electric Reliability Council of Texas, it manages the flow of electric power to more than 25 million Texas customers — representing about 90 percent of the state’s electric load. As the independent system operator for the region, ERCOT schedules power on an electric grid that connects more than 46,500 miles of transmission lines and 600+ generation units. It also performs financial settlement for the competitive wholesale bulk-power market and administers retail switching for 7 million premises in competitive choice areas.
ERCOT also offers an online and public dataset giving market participants information on a variety of topics related to the market of electricity in the state of Texas, which makes it a good candidate for AWS products: Glue and Athena.
AWS Glue is a fully managed extract, transform, and load (ETL) service that makes it easy for customers to prepare and load their data for analytics
Amazon Athena is an interactive query service that makes it easy to analyze data in Amazon S3 using standard SQL. Athena is serverless, so there is no infrastructure to manage, and you pay only for the queries that you run
Scraping Data :
the data on Ercot website is available as a collection of .zip files, I used a python scraper from this github repository to only collect CSV files.
As an example, we will be collecting data about the total energy sold from this page
Using the previous tools the command would something like this :
python -m ercot.scraper "http://mis.ercot.com/misapp/GetReports.do?reportTypeId=12334&reportTitle=DAM%20Total%20Energy%20Sold&showHTMLView=&mimicKey"
the script will download the csv files and store them in a data folder :
At this point, we transfer the data to S3 to be ready for AWS Glue, an optimization of this process could consist of creating a lambda function with a schedule to continuously upload new datasets
Creating a Crawler
you can add a Crawler in AWS Glue to be able to traverse datasets in S3 and create a table to be queried.
At the end of its run, the crawler creates a table that contains records gathered from all the CSV files we downloaded from EROCT public dataset, in this instance the table is called: damtotqtyengysoldnp
And now you can query Ahead!
using AWS Athena, you can run different queries on the table we generated previously, here are some few examples :
Total energy sold by settlement point :
Getting the hours of the day: 11/12/2018 with the Max energy sold